North Carolina Courage - Roster and off season
The North Carolina Courage announced their off season roster of 25 players on Tuesday, with two free agents outstanding. If they sign both, they would technically be over the 26 player roster limit, although one under-contract player is currently on the season-ending injury list and would not count against the active roster. The Courage currently have 5 of 7 international slots occupied, with both free agents requiring an international slot.
Given that, there’s no reason to expect a lot of player movement.
But we can still take a look at where they stand, and what their current general manager, [404 ERROR CHIEF SOCCER OFFICER NOT FOUND], might do.
On to the numbers, let’s play some games on spreadsheets.
Basic notes #
Any free agent suggestions will be limited to the NWSL out-of-contract list, hat tip to Taylor Vincent. I am not a college scout, and I haven’t researched who might be available in Europe.
All stats and via FBRef, unless otherwise noted. For a primer on some of the more esoteric fancystats, see here.
Goalkeeper #
Under contract #
Starter:
- Casey Murphy (28), 26 NWSL games played
Reserves:
- Marisa Bova (24), 3 Summer cup games played
- Hensley Hancuff (24)
2025 thoughts: more of the same #
Casey Murphy had an iron woman NWSL season, recording her best numbers in a few years. Marisa Bova got her first playing time, becoming a shootout hero in the NWSL x Liga MX Summer Cup.
While it is possible the club could look for a backup with more experience, it would seem far from the top priority.
Defenders #
Under contract #
Starters:
- Feli Rauch (28) (INT) - 25 matches played, 21 90s
- Kaleigh Kurtz (30) - All of the minutes. And then some.
- Malia Berkely (26) - 25 MP, 24.5 90s
- Ryan Williams (28) - 25 MP, 24.9 90s
Key backups:
- Dani Weatherholt (30) - 21 MP, 9.3 90s in a variety of roles
Reserves:
- Maycee Bell (24) - 2 MP, 10 minutes for the Courage (8 MP, 3.2 90s for Gotham)
- Sydney Collins (25) - zero MP (still on SEI)
- Charlotte McLean (24) (INT) - zero MP for the Courage (22 90s for Sydney FC)
- Talia Staude (23) - zero MP (on loan in USL)
Out-of-contract and not offered a contract #
- Estelle Johnson (36) - zero MP due to injury and maternity
Released #
- Julia Dorsey (24) - zero MP
2025 thoughts: who steps in if the health doesn’t repeat? #
No stats here because the stats don’t matter. They have a locked in set of starters, and barely anyone else played. Kaleigh Kurtz got a well-deserved NWSL first team award. For more about what Ryan Williams did in her NWSL second team season, read andré carlisle. Feli Rauch replaced Emily Fox and the Courage didn’t significantly slow down, and Malia Berkely remained steady while having the NWSL’s first three-assist half in the process.
Dani Weatherholt was the first sub off the bench at both left back for Rauch, and center back for Berkely. She would be expected to fill the same role in 2025, pending needs in midfield.
Beyond that, there is basically no one with significant minutes. Former Courage Academy and UNC Tar Heel Maycee Bell is an intriguing option with experience at both center and outside back for Gotham FC. After a mid-season acquisition, she got two sub cameo appearances before succumbing to injury.
Sydney Collins remains snakebit with injury in her Courage career, and is still listed on SEI. She would not take an active roster spot as long as that is the case.
Charlotte McLean, who joined the team mid-season along with Cortnee Vine, and rookie Talia Staude remain depth options at center back, but neither has played in an NWSL game.
If the Courage are OK with Weatherholt and Bell covering all positions as the first options off the bench, we would not expect changes here.
External options #
Looking at currently out of contract defenders, there are some experienced options (if they are willing to settle for reserve roles).
Center back options could include Tatumn Milazzo (formerly of Chicago) and Elizabeth Ball (formerly of KC). For outside back, Anna Heilferty had a promising 2022 season for the Spirit, but is coming off of back-to-back knee injuries and likely won’t be ready until later in 2025.
EDIT I didn’t watch the Red Stars enough, I am informed that Milazzo
is a CB/RB hybrid.
Midfield #
Under contract #
Starters:
- Denise O’Sullivan (30) - 23 matches played, 21.4 90s
- Ashley Sanchez (25) - 26 MP, 23.8 90s, 5 goals, 4 assists, endless highlights
Key backups:
- Riley Jackson (19) - 18 MP, 3.5 90s
- Dani Weatherholt (30) - 21 MP, 9.3 90s in a variety of roles
- Victoria Pickett (28) - 19 MP, 6.5 90s (midfield, forward, and wing)
Out of contract #
- Narumi Miura (27) - 25 MP, 21.7 90s
2025 thoughts: they wouldn’t actually let Narumi walk, would they? #
Every Courage fan looks at this and sees “SIGN NARUMI NOW”. Narumi Miura came into the Courage before the 2023 season, and immediately fit like a glove in a midfield partnership with Denise O’Sullivan. The Courage have consistently played that way for two full seasons, and just letting Narumi walk would seem like a large disruption to how they would operate.
However, digging into the stats, some interesting numbers pop out when you look at Riley Jackson’s season. Numbers (approximately) above the 75th percentile for the position in bold.
| Metric (all per 90) | Narumi Miura | Riley Jackson (all minutes) | Jackson (>= 45 minutes) |
|---|---|---|---|
| npXG | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Shots | 0.74 | 0.85 | 1.04 |
| xA | 0.09 | 0.085 | 0.0 |
| Shot-creating actions | 1.75 | 3.13 | 2.08 |
| Passes | 49.07 | 74.05 | 59.30 |
| Pass completion % | 85.4% | 87.5% | 85.9% |
| Progressive passes | 5.29 | 7.12 | 2.08 |
| Progressive carries | 0.74 | 0.85 | 0.52 |
| Successful take-ons | 0.37 | 1.14 | 1.04 |
| Touches in penalty area | 1.15 | 1.71 | 1.04 |
| Progessive passes rec’d | 1.29 | 3.41 | 2.60 |
| Tackles | 3.27 | 4.84 | 3.12 |
| Interceptions | 1.34 | 0.85 | 1.04 |
| Blocks | 1.06 | 1.99 | 0 |
| Clearances | 0.97 | 1.42 | 1.04 |
| Aerials won | 0.51 | 0.85 | 1.04 |
| xG +/- | -0.23 | 0.64 | N/A |
| ————————- | ————– | —————————– | ————————- |
Caveats:
- These are very small sample sizes. Jackson’s extended minutes came in only three games, with a total of 173 minutes. This is where having advanced stats for the Summer Cup games would be nice.
- When Jackson was coming in later in games, she was often playing more offensively. As an example, she had seven progressive passes in just 11 minutes in the ill-fated early season comeback attempt at Utah.
Still, the fact that at an initial glance Jackson performed better than Narumi in many statistical categories is interesting.
Looking at game logs, you also notice trends such as all of Jackson’s interceptions coming in later games during the season, while her blocks were in earlier games. It could be a statistical anomaly, but it could also be adjusting to the pace of the NWSL game.
I still think the Courage should do whatever they can to resign Narumi (and I think they will try), but if Narumi moves on, handing the secondary midfield keys to Jackson might maybe work.
Beyond that, Dani Weatherholt again would be the first name off of the bench in defensive midfield. If the Courage intended to use her more often in midfield in the case of Narumi’s departure, they would then have to fill their depth in defense. Malia Berkely has also played defensive midfield in a pinch. Kerolin often takes up a deeper-lying midfield role for Brazil in international play, but the Courage have never tried that (and probably shouldn’t given their offensive needs).
External options (deep lying) #
If Narumi does leave the Courage, one potential replacement is Danielle Colaprico. The ten-year vet has been a consistent contributor to team success throughout her career, and can easily slide into a secondary defensive midfield position.
A depth fill-in option could be Julia Bianchi,
who had 17 appearances (9 starts) for the Chicago Red Stars in 2024 while
putting up good destroyer, but poor passing, stats in Lorne Donaldson’s
hyper-defensive system. She would require an international slot.
2025 thoughts part 2: Sanchez and…? #
Depth behind Ashley Sanchez is a concern. The Courage attack flowed primarily through Sanchez, as she led the team in shots, goals, and assists. They were +6 in goal differential with Sanchez on the pitch (+0 otherwise), and were +0.42 xG/90 better with her on the field.
The reserve options in attacking midfield start with Victoria Pickett, who only spent about 100 of her 582 minutes in midfield last year. Other options include dropping Manaka Matsukubo or Brianna Pinto deeper, whose passing numbers as forwards rate very high. Late in games when trailing, the Courage would usually also adjust by sending Denise O’Sullivan higher on the pitch, with Narumi hanging back, although it is not likely that their captain would spend significant time at the #10.
External options (attacking) #
One potential external option is Meggie Dougherty Howard, recently of Angel City, who has produced decent attacking midfield numbers for three different teams in the past three seasons. She may, however, be looking for more consistent playing time than backing up Sanchez for the Courage would provide.
| Year, team | MP | Starts | xG/90 | xAG/90 | xG+xAG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 - Pride | 14 | 13 | 0.20 | 0.07 | 0.27 |
| 2023 - Wave | 12 | 8 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| 2024 - ACFC | 18 | 14 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| ————– | —- | ——- | ——- | ——– | ——– |
Forward (wide) #
Under contract #
Rotation (ordered by minutes played)
- Tyler Lussi (29) - 22 MP, 16.3 90s
- Haley Hopkins (25) - 23 MP, 16.3 90s
- Bianca St-Georges (27) - 21 MP, 8.6 90s
- Victoria Pickett (28) - 19 MP, 6.5 90s (midfield, forward, and wing)
- Aline Gomes (19) (INT) - 7 MP, 4.1 90s
- Olivia Wingate (24) - 10 MP, 4.0 90s
- Cortnee Vine (26) (INT) - 4 MP, 2.6 90s
- Meridith Speck (31) - 11 MP, 2.4 90s
Out of contract #
- Kerolin (25) - 5 MP, 2.6 90s
Released #
- Landy Mertz (24) - 2 NWSL MP, 8 minutes, one Summer Cup goal
2025 thoughts part 1: Kerolin! Plz! #
After recovering from both an ACL tear in the final game of the 2023 season and apparent setbacks in and after the 2024 Olympics, Kerolin was not her normal self for the Courage in 2024, finishing with one goal and no assists in 235 minutes.
However, the easiest way for the Courage to do a better job in turning their possession into shots is simply “have a full strength 2023 NWSL MVP on the team”. I’d expect the Courage to do everything in their power to resign Kerolin; she is the sort of difference-maker you just don’t let walk out the door. However, there were a number of European teams sniffing around Kerolin last year, and Kerolin may want to play Champions League football. If that is her determination, then I wish her the best (and hope she looks at some place less fubar than the rumored Manchester United).
Regardless, seeing Kerolin move to another NWSL team would be a dispiriting blow, and would signal real doubts about the current Courage ownership’s willingness to compete. Getting Kero under contract should be priority number one on … someone? anyone? not sure whose? … desk.
2025 thoughts part 2: oops all wingers #
The Courage had nine players register at least two 90s at wing in 2024. Coach Sean Nahas would certainly have preferred that someone stepped up and clearly took the job, but the summer additions of Aline Gomes and Courtnee Vine speak to the fact that it didn’t happen.
Leaving aside Kerolin, who if re-signed and healthy will nail down one spot, here are how all the others performed in their minutes. (Bolded numbers are 70th percentile and above).
| Metric | Lussi | Hopkins | BSG | Pickett | Aline | Wingate | Vine | Speck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 1467 | 1464 | 776 | 582 | 371 | 360 | 233 | 213 |
| Goals | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Assists | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| npXG | 0.27 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.25 | 0.47 | 0.22 | 0.48 |
| Shots | 2.09 | 2.09 | 1.16 | 0.46 | 1.21 | 2.75 | 1.15 | 2.11 |
| xAG | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.45 | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| Shot-creating actions | 1.60 | 2.09 | 3.25 | 1.24 | 1.21 | 2.24 | 1.15 | 2.11 |
| Passes | 31.72 | 30.68 | 37.35 | 24.28 | 25.23 | 25.5 | 19.70 | 36.34 |
| Pass completion % | 61.9% | 62.9% | 65.2% | 77.7% | 75.0% | 66.7% | 58.8% | 67.4% |
| Progressive passes | 1.84 | 1.91 | 2.20 | 3.09 | 1.70 | 1.75 | 1.55 | 1.69 |
| Progressive carries | 2.82 | 2.27 | 3.60 | 2.78 | 2.67 | 3.75 | 3.09 | 0.84 |
| Successful take-ons | 0.43 | 0.98 | 0.81 | 0.46 | 0.24¹ | 2.25 | 0.38² | 1.27 |
| Touches in penalty area | 3.68 | 5.16 | 6.49 | 2.32 | 4.12 | 9.0 | 5.41 | 5.07 |
| Progessive passes rec’d | 7.91 | 8.24 | 10.55 | 3.71 | 8.73 | 12.5 | 7.34 | 6.76 |
| Tackles | 0.92 | 1.05 | 3.02 | 1.86 | 1.70 | 0.5 | 1.55 | 1.69 |
| Interceptions | 1.29 | 0.31 | 0.58 | 0.77 | 1.21 | 0.25 | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| Blocks | 1.23 | 1.05 | 1.51 | 0.31 | 1.70 | 1.75 | 1.16 | 2.11 |
| Clearances | 1.04 | 1.17 | 1.04 | 0.77 | 0.48 | 0.0 | 0.77 | 0.0 |
| Aerials won | 0.55 | 2.95 | 0.46 | 1.39 | 0.24 | 0.5 | 1.16 | 0.85 |
| xG +/- | -0.06 | -0.22 | -0.37 | -0.10 | -0.12 | -0.38 | -1.35 | +0.06 |
| ————————- | ———– | ———- | ———- | ———– | ———– | ———- | —— | ———- |
¹ Gomes had only one successful take-on in 10 attempts
² Vine had only one successful take-on in 6 attempts
Digging into the data, there are a few conclusions we can draw.
Productive standouts #
Bianca St-Georges and Olivia Wingate were the most productive wingers for the Courage by most metrics. Wingate battled injury before coming on towards the end of the year, while BSG saw her playing time drop towards the end of the season. Wingate showed great overall offensive numbers (albeit in a small sample size) while St-Georges showed direct progression leading to good shot-creating passing, as well as excellent defensive metrics and a team-leading 2.32 fouls per 90.
When the Courage were at their least effective in 2024, it was when the ball would be slowly progressed up to the wing just outside the penalty area. The winger would look up, survey their options, and then turn back to recycle possession back to the backline. It’s illuminating that their most effective wingers are the two that, from my observation of play, do not do that.
Newcomer struggles #
Courtney Vine struggled to find her game in her initial games in NC. Given her pedigree and success with both Sydney FC and the Australian national team, I would expect this to improve with more time and familiarity. Vine is currently taking a mental health break from soccer; we wish her the best and hope she takes all the time that she needs.
Aline Gomes shows potential - we have seen tantalizing individual plays in her time with NC, but especially with the Brazilian national team. But in 2024, the production wasn’t there yet for the Courage. The hope is that with more training and familiarity with the team, and also with more experience, production will come.
Brief notes on others #
Tyler Lussi succeeds at defensive actions (she has played outside back in the past), & gets better shots than most others. Hayley Hopkins succeeds at defense & aerial duels. Victoria Pickett’s profile, despite spending significant time on the wing, looks like a midfielder. And Meridith Speck had excellent production in limited reserve minutes on the wing, but the fan-favorite is unlikely to become a regular starter there.
Expectations #
I’d expect in 2025 that, given health, Vine and Gomes would be given the first chance to win regular roles, given their respective history and youth (and given the transfer resources spent).
Wingate should be the first offensive option behind them, with St-Georges offering a different, more direct and defensive, option.
Given the logjam of players, I would not expect any outside signing of wide attackers. However, if they are looking to add to the roster elsewhere, I wouldn’t be surprised if one or more of their current wide players consents to a move for more playing time (especially if Kerolin re-signs).
Forward (central) #
Rotation
- Manaka Matsukubo (20) (INT) - 17 MP, 11.7 90s
- Brianna Pinto (24) - 20 MP, 8.5 90s
- Victoria Pickett (28) - 19 MP, 6.5 90s at midfield, forward, and wing
2025 thoughts: is it the players or the system #
Look at the top teams in the league. Temwa Chawinga & Barbra Banda running at defenses. Croix Bethune finding Ouleymata Sarr in behind. The template for success is dynamic attackers in the middle getting shots and goals.
The Courage attack is not that. Whether it’s Tess Boade before, or Manaka Matsukubo and Brianna Pinto now, their center forward plays more of a false nine than a traditional center forward. This can play to their player’s strengths - it’s why Pinto, ostensibly a #8, played the season at forward with her close control and strength on the ball. But it also can mean that their center forward can wind up lacking in shots and goals, and can make evaluation compared to other attacks in the league difficult.
Here’s how Manaka and Pinto compared, with Boade’s 2023 for comparison. (Note that Boade was playing with Kerolin for the whole year, adjust accordingly in your mind.)
| Metric | Manaka | Pinto | Boade (2023) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 1051 | 764 | 716 |
| Goals | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Assists | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| npXG | 0.25 | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| Shots | 2.06 | 1.88 | 2.13 |
| xAG | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| Shot-creating actions | 2.74 | 1.18 | 2.89 |
| Passes | 31.77 | 27.68 | 28.78 |
| Pass completion % | 80.1% | 79.6% | 81.2% |
| Progressive passes | 3.85 | 3.53 | 2.64 |
| Progressive carries | 1.46 | 1.53 | 1.76 |
| Successful take-ons | 1.03 | 0.94 | 0.63 |
| Touches in penalty area | 2.23 | 2.47 | 4.14 |
| Progessive passes rec’d | 4.80 | 3.53 | 8.04 |
| Tackles | 1.03 | 0.71 | 1.01 |
| Interceptions | 0.43 | 0.71 | 0.13 |
| Blocks | 0.77 | 0.94 | 0.63 |
| Clearances | 0.09 | 0.82 | 0.0 |
| Aerials won | 0.69 | 1.06 | 0.0 |
| xG +/- | +0.13 | +0.49 | N/A |
| ————————- | ——– | ——- | ————– |
Looking at these, we can see that clearly the system seems to have a lot to do with this. The Courage 9 is consistently pass heavy (generally above the 90th percentile), but shot-poor and xG poor (Pinto’s xG/90 was the only shot, goal, or assist metric to break 50th percentile).
The only noticeable difference between the 2023 and 2024 play is that Boade would stay higher to receive progressive passes more and make them less, while Manaka and Pinto would drop deeper and play forward from there. In fact, Manaka’s penalty area touches were lower than the actual 1st percentile shown in FBref’s comparisons.
Interestingly, the xG +/- for Pinto and Manaka show that, despite the low attacking production, the team performed significantly better with them than with those who filled the other 500+ minutes, as the Courage were net-negative on xG for the year.
The default for next season would be more of the same - duties covered between Manaka and Pinto. Pinto missed the end of the season with a knee injury, but never went on the SEI list and the in-the-stands scuttlebutt was that it was more of a 4-6 week injury.
Internal options #
The Courage could move one of their existing wide attackers more central to offer a different look and more depth.
Cortnee Vine posted stellar attacking and passing numbers at Sydney FC and may be an interesting option to slide more centrally.
Haley Hopkins’ aerial skill would also provide a look that the Courage haven’t had since Diana Ordóñez moved to Houston, but brief cameos centrally weren’t promising.
External options #
The Courage’s style makes finding a center forward that would fit their system tricky.
Not many players combine the passing metrics with good shot profiles from a forward place on the pitch. Most current center forward free agent, such as Courage legend Kristen Hamilton, Katie Johnson, or Amirah Ali, don’t have the passing records.
Marta matches the profile, but that’s not happening. As long as we’re talking things that aren’t happening, trading for either Esther González or Ella Stevens from Gotham would also be excellent fits.
Attempting to filter by profile yields two out of contract players who could be depth options, but neither is likely. Hannah Betfort (77.5% pass completion, 0.37 xG/90) is negotiating a club option with Utah. Sarah Griffith had two years prior to LorneBall (78.5% pass completion, 0.34 xG/0.23 xAG per 90) that would match, but she is still negotiating a return to Chicago.
I really don’t know how they find significantly more shots and goals without either looking abroad, looking to a college star, or changing how they play.
Conclusions #
The Courage go into 2025 with a roster that’s mostly set, but with two big questions.
Signing Narumi is advised, but they do have options if they don’t get her under contract.
Signing Kerolin is critical, and if they don’t their path to offensive improvement is based on development and acclimation that wasn’t shown in the 2024 stats.
Beyond that, there just aren’t the roster slots or many available in-NWSL fits that would do more than adjust depth around the edges.